The United States and its international allies are working diligently to manage an eruption of severe fighting in Sudan, where a dispute between heavily armed military factions runs the risk of escalating into a full-blown civil war with potentially catastrophic consequences.
After employing rigorous diplomatic efforts, the U.S., along with the United Kingdom, the African Union, United Nations, Gulf countries, and additional parties, successfully extended a cease-fire in the early hours of Friday morning. The cessation of hostilities will remain in effect for no less than 72 hours, affording the U.S. and others a limited window of opportunity to rein in Sudan's warring generals. These military leaders are vying for power, wealth, and immunity.
This diplomatic maneuver, though restricted in nature, is a recognition of the devastating ramifications of conflict and war on the populace, economy, and social structure. Consequently, all stakeholders are committed to finding a permanent solution to the crisis in Sudan.
After weeks of fighting that resulted in hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, and tens of thousands fleeing the country, there is finally a ceasefire in Sudan. Dr. Yasir Elamin, the President of the Sudanese American Physicians Association, considers it a positive development, but notes sporadic fighting and lawlessness with gangs and thugs taking over the streets. Among the 500 civilians killed, 13 medical professionals have died, including a Sudanese-American doctor. Elamin urges everyone to advocate for capitalizing on this ceasefire to achieve a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
The two generals, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” who joined forces in a military coup in October 2021 to overthrow a transitional civilian-military government, were in intensive discussions with the U.S. and partners to halt their fighting. The war between them on April 15 began due to a breakdown in international negotiations to integrate rival forces and transition to civilian rule. The Africa program director at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Susan Stigant, claims that this fighting has fundamentally shifted power dynamics in Sudan, requiring political adaptation to respond to this reality.
The blame game has been rampant, and Ernst Jan Hogendoorn, who served until February as senior adviser to the U.S. special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, suggested that Gen. Hemedti launched the coup against Gen. Burhan because his power was going to wane over time. Former civilian foreign minister Mariam al-Mahdi thinks that the chances for success of a ceasefire are meager. Sudan's military commanders each have their own backers among African and Arab and Gulf leaders, and they have the potential to calm the situation or devolve it further as they pursue their self-interests.
The unchecked violence risks destabilizing a fragile and strategic region of Africa, exacerbating already large-scale humanitarian needs, and leaving a vacuum for terrorist groups to exploit. Sudan shares borders with seven countries, is considered a key crossroads between north and sub-Saharan Africa, and is a transit point for hundreds of millions of dollars of sea commerce on the Nile River and Red Sea. Achieving a peaceful resolution to this conflict is crucial for avoiding massive humanitarian, economic, and political impacts.
The Sudanese people have been dealt a crushing blow by the recent surge in violence. Their hard-earned, grassroots revolution in 2019 resulted in the ousting of a dictator, and the country's removal from the U.S. list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, and was aimed at transitioning towards a civilian-led democracy. However, the military coup staged by Burhan and Hemedti in 2021 has upended this progress.
Speaking on an Atlantic Council panel, Nureldin Satti, the former Sudanese ambassador to the U.S., noted a clear divide between the lofty ideals of revolution and the gritty reality of governance in a country like Sudan. He stressed that the balance of power was not in favor of the civilians leading the revolution, and that a transparent and open dialogue was necessary to chart a way forward. The goal, according to Satti, is to find a way for the military to coexist within Sudan's brand of democracy, as the country has suffered for decades under military predominance.